Gary`s Blog in South Jersey

Happy holidays to everyone! A time of heartfelt thanks...

Wish to thank all my clients, friends, my super co-workers, you are all so awesome!-Everyone rocks! My heartfelt thanks for helping me accomplish my 34th year in the real estate business. I am not that old now ! :) --Remember I have been licensed to sell real estate since 18 years young, and a broker since 23 years old, I have worked through 4 recessions now, our office is still leading the way, with the super help from my co workers and good client cooperation, we found ways to make people happy and get the job done right. -THANK YOU- I appreciate your business and timely thoughtful buyer and seller referrals.

Just have to mention, super time to be a Philadelphia sports fan now--The Eagles, Flyers playing in top form and how bout those Fabulous Phillies getting pitcher Cliff Lee back!-Awesome early holiday gift for us Phillies fans.  Heck- even the 76ers tonight, almost just beat the NBA leading Boston Celtics with their new improved defense of late. They may not make the playoffs like the other Philly teams but they are quickly getting more respectable each week.

Hope everyone`s holiday season is filled with alot of love and happiness that bring alot of fond memories for you and your family. May you have a super 2011, The south Jersey shore area, Atlantic and Cape May counties should show improvement in sales, with an overall slow improving economy. Be safe and keep warm--it`s cold out there!--But remember it`s usually the best time- right now-to get that timely great bargain--smart investment you always wanted. Low bargain interest rates and low prices can`t last like this perfect buying storm forever now.  Here to help! In Appreciation--My Best  Gary Simmens

Spotting and Knowing Property Value Trends

Knowing property value trends can be very helpful to you as a buyer, seller or investor. As a buyer, you can pinpoint bargains in areas that are trending upward (or downward) in price. As a seller, you can use the information as part of the bargaining process to get the maximum price from the sale. As an investor, you can use the latest forecasts and trends to determine whether you want to invest, when you want to invest, and how much to put into a property. 

Remember, the trends are not guarantees of future performance; they're an educated guess as to which way the market is moving.Whatever your real estate goals, you want the latest and best information, and you want it from experienced professionals. In terms of your neighborhood and/or city, your local real estate agent is the best source for weekly and monthly trends. After all, it's their job to stay on top of such trends in the markets they serve. 

Other organizations provide state, regional and national forecasts. They're often updated on a monthly or quarterly basis. Sources of Information Thanks to the Internet, there are many, many sources for data on real estate property value trends. 

For state trends, go to the Federal Housing Finance Agency website (http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=215). Click on your state to get the Housing Price Index (HPI). 

If you're wondering exactly what the HPI measures and how it's calculated, here's what the site says: "The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or re-financings on the same properties.

This information is obtained by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac since January 1975. The HPI serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels. Because of the breadth of the sample, it provides more information than is available in other house price indexes." So, if you want property value trends for Nebraska from the FHFA site, click on "State HPI Summary" and scan down the list of states until you find Nebraska. The handy table gives rankings and trends in quarterly, 1 year, 5 year and "Since 1991Q1" columns.On the same site, you can also click on "Research and Analysis," and you'll get a list of government and industry sites which will provide you with information on property trends. Note: The FHFA site doesn't provide predictions; it simply reports data. To get analysis and predictions, try the respected RealtyTimes.com. It reports on current market conditions and provides advice to consumers as well. Another site for information on residential properties is Zillow.com.

To find local information, fist click on the "Local Information" tab. That takes you to the page where you'll find the "State," "City," and "Nearby Neighborhoods" tabs. Click on the appropriate names, and you have local information! There are many, many other websites from which you can gather property value information. 

I don't have the space to list them all, so here's a partial list of major industry and governmental agencies: 

- National Association of Realtors = Freddie Mac 
- National Association of Home Builders 
- Census Bureau 

Of course, the network, cable, and satellite channels report many of the finding from the sources listed above on a national basis. But, if you want local information, I recommend you work with your local real estate agent! He or she is best positioned to give you the latest information on property value trends. 

To see what I can do for you in that regard, please contact me direct today at 609-338-1339 on my cell phone. Have a good day!  Gary Simmens Balsley/Losco Real Estate

Economic Highlights for the Week Ending January 29, 2010

Volume 16, Number 3 Economic Highlights for the Week Ending January 29, 2010

MONDAY, January 25th Existing home sales plunged a record 16.7% in December to an annualized pace of 5.45 million. The large decline followed several months of strong sales gains that were primarily driven by the first time homebuyer tax credit which was originally slated to expire on November 30. The tax credit has since been extended and expanded but not before impacting sales immediately afterward in December. Despite the sharp decline in December, total sales are still 15.0% above their year ago level. For all of 2009, sales increased over 5% from 2008, their first annual gain since 2005.

TUESDAY, January 26th The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 0.2% in November from October and gained 5.3% from November 2008. 14 of the 20 metro areas tracked gained on a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted, and 4 of the 20 areas posted annual gains. The rate of decline slowed in most all areas which is indicative of some price stabilization. Nationwide, home prices are akin to 2003 levels. Consumer confidence increased to 55.9% in January from a level of 53.6% in December. A solid gain in present situation ratings led the index higher although expectations scores rose slightly as well. Even with a better-than-expected reading this month, confidence levels remain depressed as weak labor and housing markets continue to weigh on consumers' attitudes about the economy.

WEDNESDAY, January 27th The MBA mortgage applications index fell 10.9% to 513.0% for the week ending January 22. The purchase index slipped 3.3% as the refinance index tumbled 15.1%. With this week's decline, mortgage application activity is 29.9% lower than its year ago level which suggests stagnation in what was a modest housing market recovery. New home sales declined by 7.6% in December to an annual pace of 342k after an upwardly revised, but still dismal annual rate of 370k in November. Substantial back-to-back monthly declines have left new home sales near their record low rate of 329k registered in January last year. New home sales are tanking again after many months of recovering at a modest pace. Hopefully, the housing market will rebound once again supported by the extended homebuyer tax credit, high affordability, looser mortgage credit and improving jobs picture. The FOMC voted to keep rates in an exceptionally low range of 0% to 0.25% in order to support ongoing recovery in the economy. The Committee acknowledging moderate economic expansion but with substantial resource slack which is likely to restrain inflation at this time. Policymakers maintained their commitment to buying up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities and up to $175 billion of agency debt. In addition the Fed anticipates that most of their special liquidity programs will expire on February 1, 2010 but are prepared to modify these plans if necessary. The Fed and fiscal and market forces have generated the beginnings of an economic recovery and resolved much of the distress in financial markets. With their mission largely being accomplished, details of the exit strategy are emerging.

THURSDAY, January 28th Jobless claims fell 8k to 470k for the week ending January 23. Expectations were centered on a bigger decline to a level of 450k. Consequently claims remain elevated which may indicate renewed weakness in labor market conditions. It may take several weeks for the data to settle down from the fluctuations caused by the holidays.

FRIDAY, January 29th The economy grew at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter according to the advance estimate for GDP. This was the strongest pace of economic growth in more than six years. This follows 2.2% growth in Q3. The Q4 expansion was driven by inventory investment which added 3.4 percentage points to growth. Final demand was positive last quarter but still fairly weak. With inventories being cyclical in nature it is questionable whether the current strong growth pace can be maintained in the near-term.

Stock Market Close for the Week

Index Latest A Week Ago Change DJIA 10067.35 10172.98 -105.65 or -1.04% NASDAQ 2147.35 2205.29 -57.94 or -2.63%

WEEK IN ADVANCE

Robust Q4 growth is not expected to continue in the current quarter. Data in the coming week will provide the first look at the economy's footing in the New Year. The employment report for January, due out on Friday, highlights on the economic calendar.

Key Interest Rates Latest 6 Mos Ago 1 Yr Ago Prime Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 Fed Discount 0.50 0.50 0.50 Fed Funds 0.13 0.15 0.19 11th District COF 2.094 1.832 3.155 10-Year Note 3.59 3.67 2.75 30-Year Treasury Bond 4.50 4.49 3.45 30-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) 4.98 5.25 5.10 15-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) 4.39 4.69 4.80 1-Yr Adj (FHLMC) 4.29 4.80 4.90 6-Mo Libor (FNMA) 0.42969 1.11125 1.7500 Sources: IBC' s Money Fund Report; Bank Rate Monitor; Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco

If You’re Going to Buy a House, Do it Now

If You’re Going to Buy a House, Do it Now By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

It looks like the U.S. housing sector has bottomed. In fact, if you’ve been thinking about buying a house, this may be the time to make your move.

Let me tell you why.

Congress and the Obama administration are considering whether to extend the $8,000 first-time-buyer tax credit for another year from Nov. 30, when it expires. With cheap money, housing may show strength in the short term, just as we’ve seen with other assets. But there is the potential for a market hiccup next year or in 2011.

When the National Association of Homebuilders released its NAHB Index for October last week, it showed a drop of one point in homebuilders’ view of the market, from 19 to 18.

The good news: The index is at double its level from last spring – when it bottomed out at nine – meaning homebuilders see an improving market.

The bad news: The index is based so that a reading of 50 is the “neutral market” view. That means there’s a long way to go, yet.

But even if Congress doesn’t opt to extend the $8,000 tax credit, 30-year mortgage rates are still down around 5.1% – close to their all-time low. But rates probably won’t remain that low for long: Building inflationary pressures and the huge U.S. budget deficit will combine to push interest rates higher.

In other words, even if housing prices are destined to drop by another 10% (except in the very worst areas, I wouldn’t expect you’d see anymore than that), you still may end up saving so much on financing costs by borrowing now that you’d be mad to wait any longer.

Housing arithmetic is always complicated but one thing I do know: 7% of $90,000 is more than 5.1% of $100,000!

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite home price index bounced nicely in July, with the 20-city index rising 1.5%, after a 1.3% jump the previous month. That’s a pretty good indication that the markets have bottomed out.

What’s more, the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers was still in force for August and September transactions (you need to close to get the credit, so deals done before Sept. 30 should squeeze under the wire). Since interest rates remained low for those months, it’s likely we’ll see further price rises then, too.

That would mirror the market in Britain, where housing prices bottomed out last spring and have risen for the six months since. Indeed, the market in London for houses priced above 5 million pounds (about $7.5 million) is apparently exceptionally strong, because of the likely level of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) bonuses!

For those of us who aren’t about to receive a Goldman Sachs bonus, or buy a house priced above $7.5 million, the short-term outlook is still pretty good. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) almost certainly rose during the third quarter – probably by about 3% – and is expected to rise again in the fourth quarter.

That should translate into an abatement of the flood of job losses – perhaps from the 250,000-per-month rate of the last few months to around 100,000 per month. That’s still bad, but is indicative of a recovery ahead. At that point, the outlook for the housing market will depend on what region you live in.

In Florida, California and Nevada – where prices have dropped more than 40% – there may still be a large number of foreclosures and unoccupied new buildings left over from the bubble. In those markets, therefore, the excess supply may take time to absorb.

Similarly, even with the government bailout of the automobile industry, I probably wouldn’t invest heavily in Detroit, even though prices there are lower than they were in 1995. However, in such cities as Atlanta and Dallas, prices did not rise too much in the bubble – and haven’t dropped all that much since – so the market should rest on a firm foundation and we can expect it to advance.

Beyond 2009, the prognostication is still murky. On the one hand, even a slow economic recovery should induce consumers to more seriously consider home purchases. And with inflation apparently on the upswing, the prices of those houses can be expected to increase, as well.

On the other hand, if inflation really gets a grip, the U.S. Federal Reserve will have no alternative but to raise interest rates. Housing is the most-interest-rate sensitive sector of consumer spending. So if rates rise sharply, the housing market will inevitably suffer.

As for the $8,000 credit for first-time homebuyers, it doesn’t really matter. It’s like the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program. If Congress extends it, it will prop up the housing market a bit. But if Congress doesn’t, there will be no disaster – the market will simply fall back for a few months until demand catches up with supply.

It makes only a modest short-term difference in activity, and probably only a 1% to 2% difference in the level of housing prices.

If you’ve got the money, go buy a house. You won’t find a better time to strike.

Interest rates lowest in many years.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Lowest in Four Months, Nearing All-Time Low Set in Survey in March

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.94 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending October 1, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 5.04 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.10 percent. The last time the 30-year FRM was below 5 percent was the week ending May 28, 2009, when it averaged 4.91 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.36 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.46 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.78 percent. This is the lowest the 15-year FRM has been since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991.

The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.42 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.00 percent.

The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.49 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.52 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.12 percent.

"Low mortgage rates are helping to stabilize home sales," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "New home sales in August rose to the highest annualized pace since September 2008 and the inventory of unsold houses fell to the lowest level since February 1983."

Although existing home sales fell somewhat in august, it was still the second strongest showin in 23 months. Furthermore, house prices increased for the second month in a row in July, after adjusting for seasonality, based on the 20-city composite S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. Moreover, the increases were more broad-based in July with house prices rising in 17 of these metropolitan areas, compared to 16 in June.

Seasonal Casino job cuts trim 1,000 in Atlantic County,NJ in September 2009

ATLANTIC CITY,NJ - Casinos slashed more than 1,000 jobs in September as pink slips flew as fast as dice on a craps table in the traditional post-Labor Day employment cutback.

New figures released by the New Jersey Casino Control Commission show that 1,067 jobs were lost industrywide in September, reducing the total number of workers at the 11 casino hotels to 37,337.

Casinos historically trim their payroll as business tapers off after Labor Day, but the weak economy and competition from Pennsylvania slot parlors have put additional pressure on Atlantic City's gaming industry to cut even deeper to reduce costs.

"I think they're in line with where the market has been headed," casino analyst Cory H. Morowitz, chairman of Morowitz Gaming Advisors LLC, said of the job losses. "I think this is related to the continuing softness in the Atlantic City market. As the revenue declines, the operators are responding by right-sizing their businesses."

Revenue has plummeted 15 percent for the first eight months this year. Casino customers have been cutting back on their spending in the soft economy or have been taking their business to the slot parlors in Pennsylvania.

Morowitz predicted the downward trend in employment would continue until the $2 billion Revel Entertainment Group casino opens in 2011. Revel will hire about 5,500 workers for its Las Vegas-style megaresort.

More than 3,700 jobs have been lost industrywide in the past 12 months, figures show. Employment is down to a level not seen since the late 1980s and well below the peak of 51,560 jobs in July 1997.

"We're all learning that casinos are not a recession-proof industry," Ellen Mutari, an economics professor at The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey, said at an Atlantic City gaming conference last month.

All of the gaming halls except for Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort cut jobs in September. The Taj Mahal increased its payroll overall by only four workers. Every casino has a smaller payroll now than it did in September 2008.

Casinos usually make big job cuts in September, reflecting the transition from the peak summer tourism season to the fall and winter slowdown following Labor Day.

This year's round of cuts equals 2.8 percent of the total work force, about the same percentage as the job losses in September 2007 and 2008, figures show. In 2008, the casinos shed nearly 1,000 jobs in both October and November, suggesting that another large cut is on its way this year.